Reduction in acute rejections decreases chronic rejection graft failure in children: a report of the North American Pediatric Renal Transplant Cooperative Study (NAPRTCS).
Chronic rejection accounted for 32% of all graft losses in 7123 pediatric transplants. In a previous study acute, multiple acute and late acute rejections were risk factors for the development of chronic rejection. We postulated that the recent decrease in acute rejections would translate into a lower risk for chronic rejection among patients with recent transplants. We reviewed our data on patients transplanted from 1995 to 2000, and using multivariate analysis and a proportional hazards model developed risk factors for patients whose grafts had failed due to chronic rejection. A late initial rejection increased the risk of chronic rejection graft failure 3.6-fold (p < 0.001), while a second rejection resulted in further increase of 4.2-fold (p < 0.001). Recipients who received less than 5 mg/kg of cyclosporine at 30 days post-transplant had a relative risk (RR) of 1.9 (p = 0.02). Patients transplanted from 1995 to 2000 had a significantly lower risk (RR = 0.54, p < 0.001) of graft failure from chronic rejection than those who received their transplants earlier (1987-94). Since we were able to demonstrate that there is a decreased risk of chronic rejection graft failure in our study cohort, we would conclude that the goal of future transplants should be to minimize acute rejections.